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How Likely Is an MLB Triple Crown Winner This Season?

Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt seek the Triple Crown in the same year - is it possible?

Winning the batting Triple Crown in the Major Leagues is an extremely difficult milestone, as there have been only a few who have achieved this dominance with the wood.

It took 45 years for Miguel Cabrera to become the first player to win the Triple Crown in the 21st century, which shows how complicated it is to obtain this prestigious award.

In 2022, we live in a rare situation where two players, Aaron Judge (American League) and Paul Goldschmidt (National League), have real options to each capture the Triple Crown with less than a month of the regular season left to play.

How likely is it that we will see any of them lead the average, home runs, and RBI departments in their respective leagues?

Paul Goldschmidt

No one has reached the Triple Crown in the National League since 1937, when left fielder Joe Medwick hit 31 home runs, 137 RBIs and batted .374. By coincidence, Medwick was with the Cardinals, the same team Goldschmidt now plays for.

"It would be a miracle," he said of his Triple Crown pursuit. "To think it’s realistic is probably pretty far-fetched."

The Cardinals' first baseman currently holds a .322 average, trailing only Freddie Freeman (.331). To lead the department, not only must he maintain the incredible pace he has been setting all season, but Freeman must also flop. The Dodgers are already more than qualified for the postseason, and if Freeman takes days off, those are at-bats he won't have to miss.

In terms of RBIs, he is trailing only Pete Alonso (115) by two. This is the stat where Goldschmidt has the best chance to take the lead.

Like batting average, home runs are another area where the outlook is not so encouraging. While Goldschmidt has 35, the Phillies' Kyle Schwarber is #1 in the National League with 39. It's hard to see Goldschmidt picking up the pace for the remainder of the season, and Schwarber stalling to surpass him.

Aaron Judge

Unlike Goldschmidt, the Yankees outfielder has everything going for him to win the American League Triple Crown. In fact, he is quite close to doing so, as he leads in two of the three necessary departments.

Aaron Judge is #1 in the league for home runs (59) and runs batted in (127), second only to Venezuela's Luis Arraez (.317) in terms of average, just one point behind (.316). The Yankees outfielder is having a dominant season in every sense of the word, and should win the American League MVP.

In terms of home runs, absolutely no one is going to surpass Aaron Judge, who will surely finish the season with more than 60 long balls. As for RBIs, it looks complicated for Jose Ramirez to cut a 15 RBI deficit.

Judge's real battle for the Triple Crown is to become batting champion in a fierce duel against Xander Bogaerts and Luis Arraez. While a single point separates them, we will see an incredible duel until the end of the season, where every at-bat will be crucial. Aaron Judge is hitting above .300 for the first time in his career, and needs a slight push to complete the ultimate hitting milestone in a season.